While17% annual unit growth sounds low, especially if lower-priced, concept
modelers every take off, I don't know what sort of 3-D graphics software Peddie
is predicting everyone will use. I think currently the vast majority of 3D used
on PCs is for games and I'm sure that this use will increase. What sort of
growth is predicted for CAD/CAM software. While dramatically lower prices seem
certain over the next 5 years, I would expect that penetration will saturate
because of the difficulty of using the software. Even if CAD/CAM software were
free, I'm not sure I would expect 79 million users.
John Duffy
Marshall Burns wrote:
> From: Elaine Hunt <ehunt@ces.clemson.edu>
> >in time? The number of years it would take to produce the necessary broad
> >changes will see most of us growing daisies.
> >
> >10 years = 3700 systems sold = 5500 companies using RP&M
> >20 years =19000 systems sold= 25000 companies using RP&M
>
> Come on, Elaine. By "20 years" you are referring to 10 years from now
> and you expect to see only five times as many fabbers in use??? That's only
> 17% annual growth. I promise you that in 2008 there will be hundreds of
> thousands if not millions of fabbers in use. A large proportion of those
> will be at future "3-D Kinko's," so the number of users will be enormous.
> And those users will not all be "companies."
>
> Remember that Peddie Associates has predicted that by 2003 there will be
> 79 million users of 3-D graphics software (46% of the number of PCs at that
> time). What are those people going to do for output? Flat pictures? Give me
> a break!
>
> Best regards,
> Marshall Burns
> Marshall@Ennex.com
>
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