RE: On what RP vendors need to do...

From: SiderWhite (SiderWhite@worldnet.att.net)
Date: Fri Oct 29 1999 - 15:59:05 EEST


Now that copiers are down in the $300.00 USD range (Canon PC 325 model) I do
have one in my home and consider it an indispensible tool for work and home
uses and I don't have a home business (not yet anyways). I believe 3D
"fabbers" will also be useful tools for home uses, especially for those into
crafts and jewelry, but I believe it will be many years before it becomes
affordable for the average family, say in the $300-$500 dollar range. It
will take time to filter this technology down from the homes of risk-takers
and innovators to the homes of the "average" family, but I believe it will
happen. It will become another PC peripheral just like regular and color
printers. Being a design engineer I can think of many instances where I
think of something over the weekend and it would be real nice to have a 3D
model in hand for Monday morning to show the idea to bosses and coworkers to
get their feedback on it. Many people already have relatively inexpensive
3D CAD programs running on their home PC's such as AutoCad or CADKEY
(Educational versions are a really good buy for those going to school) so
getting a model to run would be no problem. I don't know if there will be a
"fabber" in EVERY home but if it becomes affordable enough (I believe cost
is really the main factor here) my bet is there would be quite a few homes
with one!! At the rate we are seeing today in materials development I
believe we will see many safe materials developed for home use so this won't
really be a major issue. I believe that given time 3D fabbers can become
practical for home uses. Never say never.

Get ready people, the future is coming faster then we believe!!!

Regards,

Glenn Whiteside

-----Original Message-----
From: Bill Richards <billr@fieldingmfg.com>
To: RP-ML <rp-ml@bart.lpt.fi>
Date: Thursday, October 28, 1999 8:41 AM
Subject: On what RP vendors need to do...

I might be a little behind in responding to this, but I wanted to give this
some thought.

People keep talking about the future of RP will be a rapid prototyping
machine in every home, as ubiquitous as the ink jet printer is today. That
will never happen. It isn't so much the cost of the machines, the fact that
some RP materials are so exotic they require specialized handling, the fact
that the machines require expensive and time consuming upkeep to maintain
them, etc. It's simply that it isn't practical.

Think of another machine we find in the office that seems no business can do
without: the copier. Aside from those of us who have a business at home,
I'll bet that no one has a copier in their house. It isn't like there is no
demand for this -- look at all the copier service bureaus like Kinkos,
CopyExpress, Mailboxes Etc. and such. A lot of public libraries have copiers
that one can use for free or at least a nickel or two. Everyone has to make
a copy of some document every now and then! But almost no one keeps a Xerox
copier in their home.

Until the day comes when we have technology that gives us a device such as
the replicators we see in Star Trek: all you do is tell the computer what
you want, be it a new shirt or a full dinner, and seconds later there it
is -- we will never see RP machines in the private home. I would urge RP
vendors to steer clear of this route for now.

BUT...!

That being said, there is a market there! Mainly: hobbyists, model builders,
inventors, and as people are finally waking up to the fact, ARTISTS! Which,
when you think about it, artists tend to cover the first three there,
anyway. There are always tinkers who will want to have something like a
prototyper around, so they can make the custom items that invariably they
will need, or invent. But considering the cost, right now, of a prototyping
machine, it is pretty likely that these people will still go to a service
bureau to get the prototype made.

Until the price on a "fabber" gets below $5,000, and the raw materials it
needs are cheap and easy to get and not toxic or difficult to clean/dispose
of, rapid prototyping will never get into the private home.

The ripest targets for marketing RP are the art and jewelry industries!
Michael Rees, Steve Pollack, and now our newest voice from this sector,
Bathsheba, are very good examples. Steve is really the first jeweler I have
known to actually take the plunge into using rapid prototyping as an
integral part of his business plan.

Jewelry is a highly competitive industry. Profit margins are tight, and
international competition is fierce. They don't want to risk meager profits
on a technology that might not pan out for them. A lot of jewelry companies
are looking at rapid prototyping, and there are some who are dabbling in it.
But the vast majority are taking a wait and see position. They want to see
someone else successfully use rapid prototyping before they take the risk
themselves.

So if you want to sell your machines to the jewelry industry, you want to
help those that are the early adopters succeed at what they are trying to
do. Where there is success, business will follow! Offer easier financial
assistance. Training and technical support are a must. On the average, an
artist won't be as technically minded as an engineer usually is.

PROMOTE those that are using your machine! Buy some of Steve's jewelry and
show your potential clients what someone is already doing using rapid
prototyping. Grab Michael and Bathsheba and pay them to be guest speakers at
trade shows to show off what they are doing! You've got to say to the
jewelers and artists, "Look what these guys are doing with rapid prototyping
technology. You can too!"

Start promoting the software that best suits the application! Pro-E (few can
afford it!), Solid Works, and others are fantastic for engineering
applications. But for artwork, the organic forms that artists create and
humans find esthetically pleasing, you will need programs such as form.Z and
Rhino.

Terry Wohlers says that our industry is in the chasm. I agree. But there are
untapped markets we can tap into to carry us through this, we just have to
make it easier for these markets to use rapid prototyping. You might realize
a smaller profit in these markets -- but it is still a profit!

Good luck to all!

Bill Richards, Rapid Prototyping Tech.
Fielding Manufacturing "From Art... To Parts... ...To Parts!"
780 Wellington Ave.
Cranston, RI 02910
T: (401) 461-0400 x221
F: (401) 941-2222

For more information about the rp-ml, see http://ltk.hut.fi/rp-ml/



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