Re: a summary of Future of RP Comments

From: Brock Hinzmann (bhinzmann@sric.sri.com)
Date: Wed Dec 16 1998 - 21:31:09 EET


Taking John Duffy's point about the use of 3-D graphics for games and
Marshall Burns' point about the number of PCs out there with 3-D graphics
capabilities is the makings of an interesting comment on the future of market
readiness. If 3-D CAD software becomes simple to use and you have an
installed base of 3-D graphics-capable PCs out there and you have enough
people out there with an idea of what they would make, then you might have a
market. That will take some time. After a 7 percent year in 1997, the major
RP vendors might like to be able to plan on a 17 percent growth every year
for the next 20 years.

Further to John's point about the usability of CAD software, consider
this comment I heard the other day: Why is computer game software so much
better designed than office software? Because computer game software is
designed by people who like to play computer games.

If CAD software is difficult to use, perhaps you need different people
designing it.

Brock Hinzmann

John Duffy wrote:
>While17% annual unit growth sounds low, especially if lower-priced,
concept
>modelers every take off, I don't know what sort of 3-D graphics software
Peddie
>is predicting everyone will use. I think currently the vast majority of
3D used
>on PCs is for games and I'm sure that this use will increase. What sort
of
>growth is predicted for CAD/CAM software. While dramatically lower
prices seem
>certain over the next 5 years, I would expect that penetration will
saturate
>because of the difficulty of using the software. Even if CAD/CAM
software were
>free, I'm not sure I would expect 79 million users.
>
>John Duffy
>
>Marshall Burns wrote:
>
>> From: Elaine Hunt <ehunt@ces.clemson.edu>
>> >in time? The number of years it would take to produce the necessary
broad
>> >changes will see most of us growing daisies.
>> >
>> >10 years = 3700 systems sold = 5500 companies using RP&M
>> >20 years =19000 systems sold= 25000 companies using RP&M
>>
>> Come on, Elaine. By "20 years" you are referring to 10 years from
now
>> and you expect to see only five times as many fabbers in use??? That's
only
>> 17% annual growth. I promise you that in 2008 there will be hundreds
of
>> thousands if not millions of fabbers in use. A large proportion of
those
>> will be at future "3-D Kinko's," so the number of users will be
enormous.
>> And those users will not all be "companies."
>>
>> Remember that Peddie Associates has predicted that by 2003 there
will be
>> 79 million users of 3-D graphics software (46% of the number of PCs at
that
>> time). What are those people going to do for output? Flat pictures?
Give me
>> a break!
>>
>> Best regards,
>> Marshall Burns
>> Marshall@Ennex.com
>>

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