Elaine,
In a message dated 98-05-06 09:35:39 EDT, you write:
> Fabbing is a great idea and will eventually be apart of everyday life, but
> at what cost both in terms of jobs and dollars? How long must I wait?
>
> Considering the other side,
Although I've been "noisier" than I would like lately, I'd like to offer a
couple more personal opinion in response to your questions.
There seems to be little choice in our society - you either strive to keep up
with, or ahead of, technological progress - or you risk falling in to
"obsolescence." That's the way it is. People make adjustments and often find
better uses for their time. {You've commented frequently on keeping skills
current.}
Still lacking that crystal ball, I can only fall back on analogies from other
media of communication - including radio/TV and 2D printing. Why shouldn't 3D
generally follow the pattern we've observed? By this I mean that we can
expect better and better product - faster and easier, with more and more
communication capacity to more and more people.
I don't expect a true "Personal Factory" within my lifetime any more than I
expect a personal printer which rivals the presses of National Geographic in
output quality and price. The fact is that there are major advantages to mass
production and they do not seem likely to be negated for a very long time. So
what? People will determine what they need to have customized quickly - and
industry will follow accordingly.
I do expect rapid improvement in the production of 3D computer hardcopy for a
wide variety of uses - with an ever increasing range of materials and methods.
My personal fascination happens to be with (colored) 3D printing because there
are very convincing reasons why complex 3D color can best be incorporated
during the fabrication process. Furthermore, such a 3D printer would be most
closely analogous to highly successful 2D products - meaning it is the 3D
version of the ordinary 300-500 dpi printer and will provide affordable 3D
computer hardcopy to the masses (not next year but within the next ten years).
The demand for this nonexistent market won't come from the ordinary guy - it
doesn't ahve to. It'll start with the many thousands of people who already
work with 3D information - engineers, doctors, architects, sculptors,
educators, etc. and expand outward to include people with discretionary
resources to "dabble" in 3D (people who put their "PlayDoughFactory" away a
long time ago but who would just love to get back into an adult version). If
the logic and economy of the process requires it, they'll settle for the
"layered look," just as we've settled for compromises in other "home" media,
until technology advances to the next step.
Coming our way before long.
Norm Kinzie
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